Sunday, May 27, 2012

Why the Hate?

"He sucks.  He's terrible.  I hate when he's playing.  I can't stand him." Any or all of this quote can be attributed to many fans of the Padres this year in regards to a number of players.  With a season approaching the vacuum that is the Black Hole of Suck and Ineptitude, it could be fair to say it of any or all players.  I keep believing that the season will get better, but I must admit, I'm questioning that belief.  Losing really does suck.  To compound that problem, is when you see the opening quote to this blog post about almost any player being repeated ad nauseum in message boards and on twitter.  One player in particular who I've seen almost universally scorned has been today's starting pitcher, Edinson Volquez.

I'm not the biggest Volquez fan. Some might not believe that, as I have defended him from criticism's on many occasions.  My problem is, that for this season, much of that criticism has been based on a perception that might not be the same as reality.  Does Volquez walk too many people? Absolutely.  But would you believe that at 4.7 BB/9 entering today's game, he has his lowest walk rate since 2008?  He gives up a lot of HR!! Actually he doesn't, giving up 0.5 HR/9 IP.  He strikes out 7.6 per 9 IP, which, like his walks, is his lowest since 2008.  Volquez has a 3.49 ERA, a 3.59 FIP, and an xFIP of 4.15 which is the low end of average.  In other words, he doesn't really suck..he's just ...average.

I've come to believe that a big reason many fans don't like him, is because of how the Padres acquired him.  Many fans were sad to see Mat Latos traded. Count me among them.  I don't have direct evidence of it, but I'm getting a feel that people don't like Volquez because he's not Mat.  IT reminds them of the "stupid decision" to trade away Latos.  Well, like I said, I was sad to see Mat traded.  But when I take an honest look at the return, I'd be more upset if I found out Byrnes didn't make the trade.  Especially when you compare Latos to Volquez straight up, and don't even factor in the emergence of Yonder Alonso as a legitimate hitter, Grandal waiting in AAA and Boxberger, whom I must admit, I still don't know much about.

Latos- 4.35 ERA, 3.83 BB/9 8.36 K/9 1.05 HR/9 3.99 FIP and 4.23 xFIP

Volquez has thrown more innings this season and has a slightly better xFIP, and is outpacing by 1/2 a run better in FIP, and more than 1/2 a run better in ERA.  Are Volquez stats sustainable? maybe not. He has a lower than league average BABIP, that could start driving his ERA higher should that regress.  But as for now, Volquez isn't the WORST PLAYER EVER. He's not even pitching worse than whom he was traded for.

So can we tone back the hate on him, or at least explain rationally why he's hated so much?

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